Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster could upset the fragile balance she has forged between her country and India, China and the United States.
India has been using its influence with Hasina’s government to block China’s intervention in Bangladesh, and that may change. Instead, China is likely to strengthen its presence in the Bay of Bengal.
Hasina’s diplomacy has been characterized by a balancing act with three superpowers. Allowing Bangladesh maximum benefits while limiting bias and interference in its internal affairs.
Hasina’s resignation on August 5 creates high-stakes situations for India, which sees China’s involvement in Bangladesh’s infrastructure projects as a threat. In 2016, New Delhi asked Dhaka to abandon the Sonadia deep-sea port project that China intends to build.
New Delhi also fears the future of re-shipment arrangements between Bangladesh and India’s northeast, which the new government in Dhaka may be tempted to revise. In this case, Hasina’s ouster is a setback.
Following Hasina’s return to power in 2008, Bangladesh and India had a closer rapprochement. It ended Dhaka’s rapprochement with several terrorist groups, often allegedly supported by Pakistan. It also opened a new era of cooperation with India in trade, energy, infrastructure, defense and science. Under Hasina, Bangladesh implemented strict border controls to check the arrival of illegal immigrants.
But the government downplayed the rise of opposition to Hasina’s government following the January 2024 election, which was marked by opposition boycotts and an unusually low 40 percent voter turnout.
China benefited greatly from Hasina’s tenure. However, perceptions of China in Bangladesh were largely positive as it always presented a facade of political neutrality. By the end of 2023, 700 Chinese companies were operating in Bangladesh. During Hasina’s visit to Beijing in July 2024, the two countries upgraded their relationship to a ‘comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership’. Defense cooperation also became an important part of the relationship. China hands over two refurbished submarines to Bangladesh China has become Bangladesh’s most important arms supplier. China provided 73.6 percent of Bangladesh’s arms purchases between 2010 and 2020. Although their security cooperation is limited to arms sales and infrastructure building, it is increasingly active. In May 2024, China and Bangladesh held their first bilateral military exercise.
The military significance of China-Bangladesh cooperation should not be overstated. The May 2024 exercise is based on United Nations peacekeeping and counter-terrorism operations. Bangladesh’s military cooperation with China still lacks the intensity of its cooperation with India. Between 2009 and 2023, 11 military exercises were conducted. However, Bangladesh-China relations represent a closeness that was unthinkable a decade ago.
The United States is Bangladesh’s largest export base, accounting for 14.5 percent of its total exports. US arms sales to Bangladesh pale in comparison to China, but Washington maintains dynamic defense cooperation with Dhaka. However, the United States cannot ignore the neutrality of Bangladesh’s recent Indo-Pacific strategy. The US sees the current situation as an opportunity to push back against China’s influence in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s future foreign policy orientation will ultimately depend on the composition of the new government.
